Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

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Issued: Nov 27, 2015 4:12 PM HST

Breezy trade winds will bring in another round of showers tonight. Drier trade wind weather is expected over the weekend as moisture from a remnant front heads west of the state. Breezy conditions will continue into next week with showers focused over windward areas and passing showers over leeward locations. Trades will ease Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing again Thursday.

Breezy trade winds continue to buffet the islands through the weekend. Showers have diminished today bringing bouts of sunshine to the aloha state. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies just upstream of the state, but showery low clouds are pushing closer to the islands and should arrive over the windward Big Island this evening and late tonight for the smaller islands.

Drier weather is expected Saturday with diminished moisture moving in from the east. Windward areas will still see clouds and showers, but rainfall totals will be on the decline. Leeward areas will see some limited passing showers but will experience mainly partly cloudy skies. High pressure to the north will maintain breezy trade winds through Sunday. The high will push into the east Pacific Monday allowing trades to diminish into moderate levels Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday, trade winds will increase to fresh levels as a new high moves north of the islands. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas with an occasional passing shower over leeward locations. Late in the week an approaching front is expected to weaken the trades to light to moderate levels.

Brisk easterly trade winds persist across all the islands, causing clouds and showers to favor windward sections. However, MVFR conditions have decreased across these areas this afternoon, allowing VFR conditions to dominate.

Airmet sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island, but will be cancelled by early this evening. A return of sierra is possible later tonight as showery weather returns to windward areas. Airmet tango for moderate turbulence will remain in effect all night below 7000 feet immediately south and west of all islands.

A small craft advisory is in place through the weekend for most areas. Strong trade winds will continue through Sunday before weakening Monday and Tuesday. Trades will strengthen again Wednesday and Thursday. The strong trades will produce rough surf along east facing shores, but surf heights are expected to remain just below advisory levels.

A moderate north and northwest swell will decrease into Saturday. A larger northwest swell is expected to arrive Saturday, peak Saturday night, then slowly subside early next week. A high surf advisory has been issues for north and west facing shores of Kauai and north facing shores of Oahu Molokai Maui and the Big Island. Surf will remain small along south facing shores through the weekend and into next week.

High surf advisory from 6 am Saturday to 6 pm HST Sunday for Niihau, Kauai windward, Kauai leeward, Oahu north shore, Oahu Koolau, Molokai, Maui windward west, Maui central valley, windward Haleakala, Big Island north and east.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST Sunday for Kauai northwest waters, Kauai windward waters, Kauai leeward waters, Kauai channel, Oahu windward waters, Oahu leeward waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui county windward waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.