Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

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Issued: Jul 29, 2014 9:00 AM HST

Synopsis
High pressure far north of the state will provide for trade winds for the rest of the week and on into the weekend. Clouds and a few brief showers can be expected over windward and mauka areas into Friday. An increase in showers is expected as we head into the weekend as some tropical moisture moves into the area from the southeast.

Discussion
Mainly dry and pleasant weather can be expected for the next few days as high pressure resides far north of the area. The airmass across the area is rather dry so only brief light passing showers are expected over windward and mauka areas with a few afternoon showers also possible over the leeward Big Island slopes during the afternoon hours.

Models are in good agreement with a wetter weather pattern for the upcoming weekend. An increase in moisture from the southeast is forecast to reach the Big Island by Friday and spread up the island chain Friday night and Saturday. An increase in windward and mauka showers will be the likely result with the trade winds sufficiently strong enough to blow some showers over to leeward areas of the smaller islands at times. The atmosphere is not expected to be all that unstable so heavy showers are not expected at this time.

Once the moisture moves through the area by Sunday and into Monday, a drier weather pattern will once again take over with clouds and passing light showers affecting mainly windward and mauka areas. Moderate trade winds will continue into early next week as high pressure remains to our north.

Aviation
Vfr will prevail over the aloha state today, with only isolated areas of MVFR in windward and mauka areas from passing low clouds and any accompanying showers.

There are moderate to locally strong trade winds just downwind from the mountains, thus an airmet for tempo moderate turbulence has been posted.

Marine
A small craft advisory continues for the typically windier waters around Maui county and the Big Island. These conditions are expected to continue for the next few days.

A series of small southerly swells are expected for the next few days with a larger south swell expected over the weekend. Trade winds will continue to produce short period choppy surf along east facing shores.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.


SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE

AVIATION...KINEL