Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

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Issued: Oct 13, 2015 10:00 AM HST

A weak front will move down the island chain over the next couple of days with northerly winds filling in. Clouds and passing showers will tend to favor windward and mauka areas. A more typical trade wind weather pattern is expected later in the week. Over the weekend there may be possible increase in clouds and showers across portions of the state as tropical moisture may spread over the area from the southeast.

Remnant moisture lingering across the central portion of the state is providing for some scattered showers mainly over Oahu with just a few showers seen elsewhere.

A rather weak and shallow cold front will advance down the island chain over the next couple of days. Northerly winds will provide for some lift over north and northeast facing slopes where scattered showers, mainly light, are expected. Only a few passing light showers are expected elsewhere with the frontal passage.

A slightly cooler and drier airmass behind the front will move over the area for the next few days as high pressure builds in to our north. Passing light showers will mainly be confined to windward and mauka areas with rainfall intensities remaining rather light.

Tropical storm Nora is currently centered about 500 miles southeast of the Big Island. The latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center has Nora dissipating to a remnant low Friday night well southeast of the state. However models indicated that some moisture may reach far enough northward to cause an increase in showers especially for the Big Island over the weekend. Details on this will likely be adjusted later in the week.

For more details on tropical storm Nora, please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at for the most recent bulletins regarding the progress of Nora.

A weakening front from the north will move through the islands today and tonight, spreading north winds down the chain as it advances. Tempo low ceilings and showers will be mainly focused over northern and windward sections of the isles, and especially on Oahu and the isles of Maui county from this morning into the afternoon hours. Vfr will otherwise predominate.

An airmet for high level moderate turbulence will continue as an upper trough moves over the state from the west and northwest.

There will be a series of small to moderate size north swells over the next several days. However due to the close proximity of the swell generation area, the swell periods will be rather short. There will also be a series of small northwest swells with slightly longer periods through the week. South facing shores will also experience a series of small swells through the remainder of the week with a slightly larger swell expected around Friday and on through the weekend. Southeast facing shores of the Big Island will also see a slight increase in surf from tropical storm Nora with surf heights possibly reaching low end advisory levels.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through the remainder of the week. However locally breezy conditions may be experienced around Kauai today due to terrain enhanced acceleration.