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This page was last loaded at 8:07 am HST Sep 21, 2014 (1807 GMT Sep 21, 2014)

Central Pacific (140W to 180) xml button

Tropical Outlook Sea Surface Temperatures CPAC Satellite EPAC Satellite Widgets Satellite Message Forecast Discussion

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Issued: Sep 21, 2014 2:30 AM HST

Based on data through 2:00 am Sep 21 2014 HST

Regional satellite imagery shows that low clouds have diminished over most of the main Hawaiian islands since Saturday evening, although cloudiness of varying types continues near and over the Big Island. Latest imagery in fact shows isolated cloud tops extending as high as 40 thousand feet over leeward Big Island waters, and also about 150 to 275 miles east of windward Big Island, where thunderstorms are likely occurring. Water vapor imagery shows a sharp trough aloft axis straddling the island chain near Maui, and the presence of this feature is likely adding instability to an area where increased low level moisture is noted.

Light winds prevail over the islands, but favor an easterly direction at cloud level. While the light easterly component of the wind at cloud level has pushed few to scattered low clouds and isolated showers over windward portions of the islands overnight, the overall trend has been toward clearing of skies over the islands since sunset on Saturday. Meanwhile, scattered to locally overcast layered clouds are over the Big Island, adjacent leeward waters, and over waters east and southeast of the Big Island. Increased moisture in the vicinity of the Big Island is associated with weak tropical disturbances passing to the south, with this moisture being enhanced due to a trough aloft in the vicinity.

Water vapor imagery shows that the axis of this sharp trough aloft is over Maui county, moving southeast near 10 mph. With the trough aligned in this manner, winds aloft over Kauai and Oahu are from the east-northeast, while winds aloft over the Big Island are from the southwest. A ridge aloft is seen to the distant southeast of the islands, and strong southwesterly winds aloft are between the trough and the ridge. This is resulting in upper level winds that are not conducive for the further development of a weak westward-moving tropical disturbance located about 425 miles southwest of Oahu. Associated showers and thunderstorms have diminished near this disturbance over the past 6 hours, but moisture extending north and east from the disturbance has helped to fuel the thunderstorms described earlier near the Big Island.

While most islands lie in an area of relatively few low clouds on the large scale, an east to west oriented cloud band, marking a stalled and weakening front, is about 500 to 600 miles north of Oahu. Another cluster of nearly stationary low clouds is about 300 to 400 miles north of Maui county, associated with a weak surface trough that extends southward toward Oahu.

Hawaii Infrared Satellite image for 1200 UTC

Central Pacific Infrared Satellite image for 1200 UTC


Western Pacific (West of 180)

Monitored by the:
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Japan Meteorological Agency

Eastern Pacific (East of 140W) xml button

Active Systems

xml button  Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Advisory Number 22
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

Eastern Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located about a hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
has become better organized this morning. Environmental conditions
are conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next several days as the low
moves west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...near 30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Eastern Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)


Hurricane Preparedness

State of Hawaii Civil Defense
Oahu Department of Emergency Management
Kauai Civil Defense
Maui Civil Defense
Hawaii (Big Island) Civil Defense

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Saffir-Simpson Scale
  • Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
  • Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
  • Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
  • Category 3 - winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt)
  • Category 4 - winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt)
  • Category 5 - winds 157 mph and up (137+ kt)
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