AXHW70 PHFO 022022 DGTHFO HIC001-003-007-009-032200- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1020 AM HST THU FEB 2 2012 ...LEEWARD DROUGHT WORSENS ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY... SYNOPSIS... FOLLOWING VERY WET CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES DURING DECEMBER...THE NEW YEAR HAS STARTED OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE ISLAND OF KAUAI. LEEWARD DROUGHT WORSENED ON THE BIG ISLAND WITH EXISTING EXTREME DROUGHT...OR D3 CATEGORY CONDITIONS ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP...EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO RANCH LANDS NEAR WAIMEA. SEVERE DROUGHT...OR D2 CATEGORY CONDITIONS...CONTINUED WITHIN A BELT EXTENDING FROM PUAKO TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO PAHALA AND SOUTH POINT. MODERATE DROUGHT...OR D1 CONDITIONS... PERSISTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH KONA DISTRICT. ON THE ISLAND OF MAUI...EXTREME DROUGHT SPREAD FROM THE KIHEI AREA INTO THE MAALAEA AND LAHAINA AREAS OF LEEWARD WEST MAUI. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO WORSENED ON MOLOKAI WHERE EXISTING SEVERE DROUGHT DOWNGRADED TO EXTREME DROUGHT OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE ISLAND. SIMILARLY...DROUGHT ON LANAI DEGRADED TO A SEVERE CLASSIFICATION IN THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS. WATER LEVELS IN THE WAIMANALO RESERVOIR HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN RECENT WEEKS SO MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS REMAINED IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE SEVERE DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION FOR EAST OAHU. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... KAUAI. THERE WERE NO DROUGHT IMPACTS TO REPORT AS KAUAI HAS BEEN THE ONLY ISLAND TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH. OAHU. THE WATER SUPPLY IN THE WAIMANALO RESERVOIR HAS CHANGED LITTLE SO THE 10 PERCENT MANDATORY WATER USE RESTRICTION REMAINED IN PLACE. MOLOKAI. A RECENT ASSESSMENT BY AGRICULTURE OFFICIALS INDICATED THAT PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION CONDITIONS WERE IN VERY POOR CONDITION OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE ISLAND. THE STATE OF HAWAII DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE HAS CONTINUED THE MANDATORY 30 PERCENT CUTBACK IN IRRIGATION WATER CONSUMPTION FOR THE KUALAPUU RESERVOIR SYSTEM. LANAI. PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE PAST MONTH. MAUI. PASTURES AND VEGETATION REMAIN DRY OVER THE LEEWARD AREAS OF MAUI AND ESPECIALLY FROM ULUPALAKUA TO LAHAINA. AFTER IMPROVING RAPIDLY FOLLOWING AMPLE DECEMBER WINDWARD RAINFALL...WATER SUPPLY LEVELS FOR UPCOUNTRY MAUI HAVE DECLINED JUST AS QUICKLY DURING JANUARY. THE MAUI COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF WATER SUPPLY HAS MAINTAINED THEIR CALL FOR A 5 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE. THE REQUEST FOR A 10 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE BY CENTRAL AND SOUTH MAUI RESIDENTS ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT. BIG ISLAND. PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT WERE IN VERY POOR CONDITION AND BRUSH FIRES HAVE BEEN A SIGNIFICANT ONGOING CONCERN. RANCHERS IN THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY DESTOCKED CATTLE AND WATER HAULING OPERATIONS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR SEVERAL MONTHS. SOME KONA COFFEE GROWERS HAVE HAD TO IRRIGATE MORE THAN NORMAL TO SUSTAIN THEIR ORCHARDS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... ACCORDING TO THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LA NINA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OUTLOOK ISSUED ON JANUARY 19 BY THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT PROBABILITIES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING EARLY 2012 AS PART OF THE MATURE PHASE OF LA NINA. NOTE THAT EVEN IF THE LONG RANGE PROJECTION FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE MONTHS VERIFIES CORRECTLY...FULL DROUGHT RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...MAY NOT OCCUR DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ON FEBRUARY 16. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MONTHLY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES FOR JANUARY INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE MONITORED STREAMS ACROSS THE STATE ARE AT BELOW NORMAL FLOW LEVELS. FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BASED ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH 8 2012 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML HAWAII DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.HAWAIIDROUGHT.COM USGS HAWAII - RECENT CONDITIONS...HI.WATER.USGS.GOV/RECENT/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG-LEAD HAWAII OUTLOOK... WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/FXHW40.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... INFORMATION FOR THIS PRODUCT WAS COMPILED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES INCLUDING THE COUNTY BOARDS AND DEPARTMENTS OF WATER SUPPLY...U.S. AND STATE OF HAWAII AGRICULTURE AGENCIES...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE MEDIA. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... KEVIN KODAMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2525 CORREA RD. SUITE 250 HONOLULU HI 96822 PHONE...808-973-5276 KEVIN.KODAMA@NOAA.GOV $$