AXHW70 PHFO 040032 DGTHFO HIC001-003-007-009-042200- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 230 PM HST THU NOV 3 2011 ...DROUGHT WORSENS IN OCTOBER BEFORE THE RAINS BEGIN... SYNOPSIS... BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST AREAS OF THE STATE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN DROUGHT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN ALL FOUR HAWAII COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS OCCURRED PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF WET CONDITIONS WHICH COMMENCED AT THE END OF OCTOBER AND CONTINUES TODAY. IT IS TOO SOON TO KNOW THE FULL IMPACT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME REDUCTION IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS BY THE RELEASE OF THE NEXT INFORMATION STATEMENT IN EARLY DECEMBER. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN DROUGHT DEPICTION SINCE LAST MONTH OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND OF MAUI WHERE LEEWARD AREAS DETERIORATED TO EXTREME DROUGHT...OR D3 CATEGORY CONDITIONS ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP...FROM KAMAOLE TO KAUPO. SEVERE DROUGHT...OR D2 CATEGORY CONDITIONS...ALSO INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND ENCOMPASSED THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST MAUI FROM MAALAEA THROUGH LAHAINA. THE WESTERN THIRD OF MOLOKAI WORSENED FROM MODERATE DROUGHT...OR D1 CATEGORY...TO SEVERE DROUGHT. ON THE BIG ISLAND...EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT...THE LEEWARD NORTH KOHALA DISTRICT AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE KAU DISTRICT. SEVERE DROUGHT ALSO CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE NORTH KONA DISTRICT...THE POHAKULOA REGION OF THE HAMAKUA DISTRICT AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KAU DISTRICT. MODERATE DROUGHT HAS ALSO SPREAD TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES ABOVE 3000 FT. LOCALIZED DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KAUAI WITH A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE DROUGHT DEVELOPING NEAR KALEPA FOLLOWING TWO MONTHS OF RAINFALL AT LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SEVERE DROUGHT HAS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF HAWAII CONTINUOUSLY SINCE JUNE 2008. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... KAUAI. RANCHERS IN THE KALEPA AREA OF SOUTHEAST KAUAI HAVE HAD TO PURCHASE FEED FOR CATTLE DUE TO POOR PASTURE CONDITIONS. OAHU. THE WATER SUPPLY IN THE WAIMANALO RESERVOIR CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND HAS DROPPED OVER 35 FEET SINCE EARLY IN THE YEAR. THE STATE OF HAWAII DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE IMPLEMENTED A MANDATORY 10 PERCENT CUTBACK IN IRRIGATION WATER USE ON OCTOBER 17. MOLOKAI. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE OCTOBER 6 UPDATE. THE STATE OF HAWAII DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE HAS KEPT IN PLACE THE MANDATORY 30 PERCENT CUTBACK IN IRRIGATION WATER CONSUMPTION FOR THE KUALAPUU RESERVOIR SYSTEM. LANAI. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE OCTOBER 6 UPDATE. NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT INFORMATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED THOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN VERY LOW. MAUI. PASTURE AND VEGETATION CONDITIONS ARE VERY POOR OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA ESPECIALLY FROM KAMAOLE TO KAUPO. ONE RANCHER REPORTED HAVING LESS THAN THREE WEEKS OF FEED LEFT AND IS SUPPLEMENTING WITH MOLASSES AND ALFALFA. WATER SUPPLY LEVELS FOR UPCOUNTRY MAUI HAD BEEN DECREASING THROUGH OCTOBER BUT THE LATE OCTOBER-EARLY NOVEMBER SURGE IN RAINFALL HAS HELPED INCREASE RESERVOIR SUPPLIES. THE MAUI COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF WATER SUPPLY HAS MAINTAINED THEIR CALL FOR A 5 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE. THE REQUEST FOR A 10 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE BY CENTRAL AND SOUTH MAUI RESIDENTS ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT. BIG ISLAND. DROUGHT CONDITIONS BEGAN AFFECTING AGRICULTURE EVEN ON THE NORMALLY WETTER NORTHEAST SLOPES OF THE ISLAND WHERE A RANCHER IN UPPER PAAUILO REPORTED DRY PASTURES ABOVE 3000 FT. PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION FROM KAWAIHAE TO NORTH KONA ARE IN VERY POOR CONDITION AND BRUSH FIRES CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. IN SEPTEMBER THE USDA FARM SERVICE AGENCY REPORTED THAT VARIOUS AREAS OF THE ISLAND HAD 30 TO 100 PERCENT LOSS OF FORAGE FOR LIVESTOCK. MANY RANCHERS HAVE ALREADY DESTOCKED CATTLE AND WATER HAULING OPERATIONS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR SEVERAL MONTHS. COUPLED WITH HIGHER FEED PRICES...THE IMPACT ON RANCHING OPERATIONS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT. IN OTHER AREAS OF AGRICULTURE...YIELDS FOR TANGERINES, ORANGES, AND PUMMELOS ARE DOWN ABOUT AN AVERAGE OF 50 PERCENT. CLIMATE SUMMARY... ACCORDING TO THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. LA NINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER OF 2011-2012. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OUTLOOK ISSUED ON OCTOBER 20 BY THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED THAT PROBABILITIES FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING EARLY 2012 AS PART OF A FORECASTED MATURE PHASE OF LA NINA. THE NEXT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ON NOVEMBER 17. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MONTHLY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES FOR OCTOBER INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE MONITORED STREAMS ACROSS THE STATE WERE AT NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL FLOW LEVELS. AVERAGE FLOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH A SEASONAL INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT MONTH. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON DECEMBER 8 2011 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML HAWAII DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.HAWAIIDROUGHT.COM USGS HAWAII - RECENT CONDITIONS...HI.WATER.USGS.GOV/RECENT/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG-LEAD HAWAII OUTLOOK... WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/FXHW40.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... INFORMATION FOR THIS PRODUCT WAS COMPILED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES INCLUDING THE COUNTY BOARDS AND DEPARTMENTS OF WATER SUPPLY...U.S. AND STATE OF HAWAII AGRICULTURE AGENCIES...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE MEDIA. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... KEVIN KODAMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2525 CORREA RD. SUITE 250 HONOLULU HI 96822 PHONE...808-973-5276 KEVIN.KODAMA@NOAA.GOV $$