AXHW70 PHFO 112344 DGTHFO HIC001-003-007-009-122200- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 142 PM HST MON JUL 11 2011 ...LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY DROUGHT EXPECTED TO WORSEN OVER THE SUMMER... SYNOPSIS... THE EFFECTS OF SPRING RAINFALL CONTINUED TO PRODUCE IMPROVEMENTS IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY. THIS IMPROVEMENT TREND IS EXPECTED TO END AS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD DURING THE HEART OF THE 2011 DRY SEASON. DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE...A POCKET OF SEVERE DROUGHT...OR D2 CATEGORY CONDITIONS ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP...IMPROVED TO MODERATE DROUGHT...OR D1 CONDITIONS OVER THE POHAKULOA AREA OF THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER...SEVERE DROUGHT PERSISTED OVER THE KAWAIHAE AREA OF THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT. IMPROVEMENTS ALSO OCCURRED ALONG THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA WHERE A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE DROUGHT WAS REMOVED. MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUE OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF MAUI FROM LAHAINA TO MAKENA AND OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF MOLOKAI. KAUAI AND OAHU REMAIN DROUGHT-FREE. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... KAUAI. THERE WERE NO DROUGHT IMPACTS TO REPORT. OAHU. THERE WERE NO DROUGHT IMPACTS TO REPORT. THE WATER SUPPLY IN THE WAIMANALO RESERVOIR REMAINS WELL ABOVE DROUGHT LEVEL. HOWEVER...THE STATE OF HAWAII DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE IS MAINTAINING A VOLUNTARY 10 PERCENT CUTBACK IN IRRIGATION WATER USE AS A PRECAUTION. MOLOKAI. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE JUNE 2 UPDATE. THE STATE OF HAWAII DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE HAS KEPT IN PLACE THE MANDATORY 30 PERCENT CUTBACK IN IRRIGATION WATER CONSUMPTION. LANAI. THERE WERE NO DROUGHT IMPACTS TO REPORT. MAUI. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE JUNE 2 UPDATE. BY MAY...PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION FROM KAONOULU TO KAMAOLE NEAR KIHEI RECOVERED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CATTLE RANCHING OPERATIONS. DRYNESS PERSISTS OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES AND CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN HEADING INTO THE HEART OF THE DRY SEASON. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN REPORTS OF AXIS DEER ENCROACHMENTS INTO DEVELOPED AREAS NEAR WAILEA DUE TO FORAGE DEGRADATION IN THE NORMAL RANGE LANDS. WATER SUPPLY LEVELS REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR UPCOUNTRY MAUI. HOWEVER...AS A PRECAUTION...THE MAUI COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF WATER SUPPLY CONTINUED TO REQUEST A 5 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE BY UPCOUNTRY RESIDENTS. A 10 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER USE BY CENTRAL AND SOUTH MAUI RESIDENTS ALSO REMAINED IN EFFECT. BIG ISLAND. PASTURES AND GENERAL VEGETATION CONDITIONS IMPROVED IN EARLY JUNE BUT NO ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. IN FACT...THE MOST RECENT REPORTS HAVE INDICATED A DRYING TREND OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND SLOPES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN KAU DISTRICT AND LOWER SLOPES OF THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT. CLIMATE SUMMARY... ACCORDING TO THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC IS IN AN ENSO-NEUTRAL STATE...THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE STILL REFLECTS ASPECTS OF LA NINA. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OUTLOOK ISSUED ON JUNE 16 BY THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED THAT PROBABILITIES FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUMMER AND EARLY FALL 2011. THE NEXT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ON JULY 21. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MONTHLY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES FOR JUNE INDICATED THAT ALL OF THE MONITORED STREAMS STATEWIDE WERE AT NEAR NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOW LEVELS. AVERAGE FLOW LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERALL HEADING INTO THE HEART OF THE DRY SEASON. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON AUGUST 4 2011 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML HAWAII DROUGHT MONITOR...WWW.HAWAIIDROUGHT.COM USGS HAWAII - RECENT CONDITIONS...HI.WATER.USGS.GOV/RECENT/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG-LEAD HAWAII OUTLOOK... WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/FXHW40.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... INFORMATION FOR THIS PRODUCT WAS COMPILED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES INCLUDING THE COUNTY BOARDS AND DEPARTMENTS OF WATER SUPPLY...U.S. AND STATE OF HAWAII AGRICULTURE AGENCIES...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE MEDIA. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... KEVIN KODAMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2525 CORREA RD. SUITE 250 HONOLULU HI 96822 PHONE...808-973-5276 KEVIN.KODAMA@NOAA.GOV $$