000
FXZS60 NSTU 170145
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
245 PM SST WED JAN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HEAVY BULK
OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL TURN
WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEED WILL DROP TO NEAR 10 TO
15 KT...THEN TURNING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCAL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO RECOVER
ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COMPUTER MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
INDICATED A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST OF THE DATE LINE
TO ARRIVE NEAR THE SAMOAN ISLANDS BEFORE THE MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST GFS NOW HINTS AT PLACING THIS CIRCULATION NEAR FIJI WHILE
SWEEPING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION BEFORE THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD. HENCE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOW EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE UPDATES ON THIS
FCST PACKAGE UNTIL NEW MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI