000 FXPQ60 PGUM 170741 AAA AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 541 PM CHST THU JAN 17 2013 UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION SECTIONS .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE SHOWS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BUT SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR UPSTREAM. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHEAR LINE IS NEAR PAGAN. THIS BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED ONLY A FEW MILES FARTHER SOUTH TODAY. SAIPAN AND RITIDIAN BUOYS SHOW 9 TO 11 FT COMBINED SEAS WITH LARGEST SWELL COMPONENTS FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE IPAN BUOY REMAINS NEAR 5 FT MAINLY FROM THE EAST. && .DISCUSSION... LARGE NORTH SWELL AND HAZARDOUS SURF WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARIANAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MAY SUBSIDE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND THEN REBUILD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE TODAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THE SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY NEAR PAGAN WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN BECOME REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM FOR GUAM FORECAST ZONES. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARGINALLY THIS WEEKEND...AND MARIANA WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND WINDS INCREASE...ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDINESS. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. WAVE WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NORTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE MARGINALLY BY SATURDAY THEN REBUILD AGAIN LATE SUN OR MON...AND COULD BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FEET COMBINED SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO WAVE GRIDS BASED ON WAVE WATCH MODEL TABULAR GUIDANCE AND WIND GRIDS WERE REFRESHED WITH LATEST GFS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... ALL THE MODELS SHOW A TRADE-WIND SURGE PUSHING THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE SOUTHWESTWARD. SATELLITE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS NOW OVER KOSRAE AND JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI. MAJURO LIES WITHIN A BREAK IN THE ZONE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO AND ARNO ATOLLS. GFS MAINTAINS A WET PATTERN OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURGE PUSHES WEST. DRIER CONDITIONS ON MAJURO WILL BUILD WESTWARD TO POHNPEI AND KOSRAE BY SUNDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KOSRAE FOR NORTH FACING REEFS. SURF HEIGHT CALCULATIONS SHOW THIS SAME NORTH SWELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAZARDOUS SURF ON POHNPEI ALSO. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR POHNPEI FRIDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN PLACE ON CHUUK...YAP AND KOROR THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD FROM POHNPEI STATE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CHUUK FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS INDICATE YAP AND KOROR WILL STAY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THOSE LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES WESTWARD. STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD IN BY SATURDAY OVER YAP AND KOROR WHEN A SHEAR LINE HEADS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA. SURF ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS OF KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK WILL STAY BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE NORTH SWELL CURRENTLY PASSING NEAR THE MARIANA ISLANDS WILL REACH CHUUK BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHUUK WILL LIKELY HAVE HAZARDOUS SURF ON NORTH FACING EXPOSURES BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT HEADING SOUTHWARD FROM JAPAN WILL GENERATE LARGE NORTH SWELL THAT COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF ON YAP AND KOROR OVER THE WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001>004. MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR PMZ151>154. && $$ SIMPSON/DEVITA