000
FXPQ60 PGUM 070823
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
615 PM CHST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE MARIANAS...SUPPRESSING
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN NEAR 21N156E SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO NORTHEAST
FLOW BY TUESDAY AS THE DEPRESSION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...WITH EACH OTHER
AND FROM RUN TO RUN...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND
WEATHER. I POPULATED THE GRIDS WITH 0618Z WINDS AS 0700Z WINDS WERE
NEARLY IDENTICAL. WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W SLOWLY INTENSIFIES.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY BY TUESDAY. SHOWERS SOUTH OF
GUAM COULD FLARE UP TONIGHT ...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
A LOW LEVEL COL SOUTHEAST OF GUAM MIGHT ALSO HELP TO INDUCE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MINIMIZE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE MARIANAS.


&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND SURF APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AT 5 PM. HIGH SURF
ADVIORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES ARE SEEN ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 21N155E WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 25W BY JTWC AT 070000Z. IT SHOWLD SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE 
MODELS AGREE ON GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. WITH 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W SLOWLY LIFTING FARTHER NORTH...GENTLE TRADE 
WINDS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARD MIDWEEK...A FRESH TRADE 
SURGE CURRENTLY NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MIGHT INTRODUCE WETNESS 
OVER THE MARSHALLS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THIS EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT YAP AND KOROR ARE IN 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEPARTING OR ABOUT TO 
DEPART. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT TRADE WINDS FLOWING FROM THE EAST 
WILL DISSOLVE THE TROUGH THAT IS JUST SOUTH OF YAP AND KOROR AND 
WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK. 

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR KOROR AND YAP IS EXPECTED TO LAST THRU AT 
LEAST MONDAY AND FOR CHUUK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.


GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 
     5 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

GUARD/DEVITA