000
FXPQ60 PGUM 100529
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
329 PM CHST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...RADAR SHOWED VERY FEW SHOWERS MOST OF THE DAY...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS N AND NE PARTS OF
THE COVERAGE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS A FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW-TOPPED CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM GUAM TO BEYOND WAKE ISLAND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED NEAR TERM AND THROUGH THE LONGER TERM.


&&

.MARINE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE...MAINLY TO NORTH SWELL GRIDS. 
THE HSA AND SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT...BUT WE MAY CONSIDER TERMINATING 
ONE OR BOTH LATE THURSDAY INSTEAD OF FRIDAY NOON IF MARINE
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE MUCH MORE.


&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...AS RECOMMENDED BY WSO MAJURO...THE HIGH SURF 
WARNING HAS BEEN TAPERED BACK TO AN ADVISORY AT MAJURO...BUT HIGH 
SURF WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. BIGGER WAVES 
AND SURF MAY STILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS MICRONESIA TONIGHT BASED ON 
LATEST ALTIMETRY AND WW3 GUIDANCE...BUT THE VERY LARGE SURF EXPECTED 
AT WAKE ATOLL AND THE RMI SEEMS LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. 
OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THIS AREA.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW-TOPPED 
CLOUDS FROM ACROSS CHUUK TO ACROSS PALAU. THIS WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A REMNANT SHEAR LINE THAT LINGERS ROUGHLY ALONG 5N. SHOWERS 
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND PROBABLY RATHER LIGHT EVEN
CLOSE TO THE SHEAR LINE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH THE LONGER
TERM.

THE HIGH SURF WARNING FOR CHUUK AND THE ADVISORY FOR YAP AND PALAU 
REMAIN IN EFFECT. AN ASSOCIATED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR 
MICRONESIA IS ALSO IN EFFECT.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST FRIDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

SIMPSON/MILLER