000
FXPQ60 PGUM 242025
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
625 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPHOON NIDA HAS BEGUN TO PULL AWAY FROM FARAULEP IN YAP STATE
AND HAS MADE ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND APPEARS TO BE
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NIDA HAS INTENSIFIED
DURING THE COURSE OF THE SHIFT AND IT LOOKS LIKE EYE FIXES WILL
BE FEASIBLE ONCE NIDA EXITS THE LADERA TOWER BEAM BLOCKAGE AREA
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE RADAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. TY NIDA NOW APPEARS TO BE
CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING RAIN BANDS OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGING FROM THE EAST BRINGS IMPROVED WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE CALL FOR
ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN CHUUK STATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...OSTENSIBLY TO THE LEE OF TY NIDA VIA ROSSBY WAVE TRAIN
CYCLOGENESIS.

&&

.MARINE...
ALLOWED PRIMARY SWELL GRID SET TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH FRIDAY
TO REFLECT SIMILAR TREND IN THE WIND FIELD OF NIDA. EXPECT LONG
PERIOD SWELL TO CONTINUE ARRIVING THROUGH FRIDAY...THUS EXTENDED
SCA AND HSA ACCORDINGLY. LATEST OBS FROM THE IPAN BUOY SHOW SWELL
FROM NIDA ARE VEERING FASTER THAN FORECAST. UPDATES TO THE MARINE
FORECAST MAY POSSIBLY BE NEEDED BEFORE NOON TO SHIFT HIGHEST SURF
TO RESPECTIVE EXPOSURES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE OVER
THE RMI WILL PROVIDE MAJURO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AFFECTING KOSRAE LATE ON
WEDNESDAY AND POHNPEI LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SPSPQ RE-ISSUED AT 0530L FOR YAP AND CHUUK. ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR YAP IN ANTICIPATION OF LARGER WAVES DEVELOPING
THERE. MOVEMENT AND TIMING WEATHER AFFECTS OF TS NIDA WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. YAP SHOULD BE MOST IMPACTED
BY HEAVY WEATHER WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. NIDA IS NEAR
10N144E...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFYING. CONSENSUS
OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A TRACK MORE DIRECTLY NW.
MEANWHILE...SATELLITE SHOWED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SW
WIND SURGES WERE MOVING ACROSS THE PALAU AREA...WHILE NE SURFACE
WINDS PERSIST AT YAP...AND A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST
NORTH OF CHUUK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A MONSOON TROUGH
HOVERS BETWEEN 5N AND 10N THROUGH THIS WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CHST FRIDAY
FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MCELROY/LEE