000
FXPQ60 PGUM 160838
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
638 PM CHST FRI MAY 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE MARIANAS THIS EVENING. MODERATE AND GUSTY TRADES WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER COMPARING ALL NUMERICAL MODELS...MADE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN FOCUS IS WHETHER OR NOT
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W NEAR CHUUK WILL REACH THE MARIANAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MANUALLY ADJUSTED WINDS...POPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE TO
REFLECT THE MOVEMENT OF THE EXPECTED DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF GUAM.
KEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IN ZFPMY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. INITIALIZED
SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND
WILL LOOK OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER TROUGH CONNECTED TO A TUTT CELL CENTERED NEAR 20N159E REMAINS
EVIDENT JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MARIANAS THIS EVENING. DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO FORCE THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
GUAM...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE MARIANAS IN A DRY SPOT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF OBS FROM ACROSS SAIPAN AND GUAM VERIFY SUBSIDING SURF HEIGHTS
TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTH FACING SHORES. GENTLE TRADE-
WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS WILL KEEP RIP CURRENT RISK LOW
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. KBDI WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. KOSRAE AND MAJURO HAVE NO 
MAJOR FEATURE IN THE AREA...HOWEVER MAJURO IS STILL IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE ITCZ OR TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SUBJECT TO BRIEF 
PERIODS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. IN 
GENERAL...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 
POHNPEI IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE 
WHICH SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD...CHUUK IS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
A WESTERLY MOVING DISTURBANCE AND MAY RECEIVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND 
PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM. THE VARIOUS NWP MODELS DO NOT HELP AS THEY EACH HAVE 
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS40 IS 
SLOWER AND MORE LINGERING OVER THE AREA...WHILE NOGAPS...UKMET AND 
ECMWF ARE A BIT FASTER AND CONSIDERABLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN 
THE GFS. THE WEATHER FOR YAP AND KOROR RELATED TO THIS DISTURBANCE 
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THIS FAR WEST...IF THE SYSTEM SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO THE WEST...UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

BAQUI/EDSON/DEVITA