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Legacy Cone
3-day no line
3-day with line
5-day no line
5-day with line
Cone w/ Wind Field
3-day no line
3-day with line
5-day no line
5-day with line
Wind Speed Probabilities
34 kt (39 mph)
50 kt (58 mph)
64 kt (74 mph)
Arrival Time of TS Winds
Most Likely
Most Likely & WSP
Earliest Reasonable
Earliest Reasonable & WSP
Interactive Map
Interactive Map
Wind Field
Initial Wind Field
Wind History
Misc
Satellite
SST
Probability Charts
Key Messages
Key Messages
Hurricane Wind Speed Probility
120 Loop
50-knot Wind Speed Probability
120 Loop
Tropical Storm Wind Probability
120 Loop

About this product:

Note: The time of the tropical cyclone's center location at the bottom of the graphic will be 3 hours earlier than the time of the current advisory. The forecast cycle for each advisory begins 3 hours prior to the issuance of the advisory products.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on CPHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended.

These probabilities will be updated by the CPHC with each advisory package for all active tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific basins. While separate graphics are focused on each individual tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting from more than one active tropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic.

It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities that might seem relatively small at their location might still be quite significant, since they indicate that there is a chance that a damaging or even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect lives and property.

Additionally, these probability products are available on the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) graphical tropical webpage.