WTPA35 PHFO 300239
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016
500 PM HST MON AUG 29 2016
 
...MADELINE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST AS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 146.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A Hurricane Watch is typically issued 48
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm
force winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous.
 
Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Madeline. Watches may be required for additional
Hawaiian Islands later tonight or tomorrow.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu. 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Madeline was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 146.3 West. Madeline is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the west is expected by Tuesday, with Madeline expected
to move west-southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Little change
in forward speed is expected the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Madeline will pass dangerously close
to the Big Island Wednesday and Wednesday night.  

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Madeline is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in intensity is expected
tonight, with gradual weakening forecast Tuesday and Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible over Hawaii County on
Wednesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Madeline are expected to reach the
Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, possibly becoming
damaging along some coastlines Wednesday and Thursday.
 
RAIN: Heavy rains associated with Madeline may reach Hawaii County
on Wednesday, and may impact other Hawaiian Islands later Wednesday
into Friday. Madeline is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near
15 inches, especially over windward portions of the Big Island. This
rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard