WTPA22 PHFO 270858
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP192016
0900 UTC TUE SEP 27 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 140.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 140.4W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 140.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.7N 140.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.5N 139.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.2N 139.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.5N 140.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 140.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA