WTPA45 PHFO 022033
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 02 2016

The only thing left of Madeline in the morning visible satellite
images is a low level cloud swirl with separated, disorganized deep
convection east and south of the center. The initial position
was adjusted slightly north from the previous track based on the
clearly visible position in the images. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates were 2.0/30 kt from CPHC and 1.5/25 kt from JTWC. Given
the poor appearance of Madeline in the satellite images, the initial
intensity will be lowered to 25 kt for this advisory.

Despite the warm sea surface temperatures, Madeline has not been
able to overcome the moderate to strong vertical wind shear
combined with the dry mid-level conditions to its west. These
conditions are not expected to change much in the next day or so
which makes restrengthening unlikely. Thus, Madeline is expected to
become a post-tropical remnant low within the next 12- to 24-hours
then dissipate in about 48-hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 16.5N 163.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 16.5N 166.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 16.6N 168.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0600Z 16.7N 171.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kodama