WTPA45 PHFO 021447
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016
500 AM HST FRI SEP 02 2016
 
Convection has increased near the low level circulation center
(LLCC) of Tropical Depression Madeline since the previous advisory,
but vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air continues to hamper
any attempt of re-organization. A 1116Z GPM microwave pass was
helpful in determining the LLCC of Madeline, which otherwise has
been very difficult to locate through the night. The intensity will
be held at 30kt for this advisory based on a blend of the JTWC and
PHFO current intensities which came in at 1.5/25kt and 2.5/35kt
respectively.  

The initial motion is to the west, or 265 degrees at 14kt. Madeline
will continue to track toward the west over the next couple
days on the southern periphery of a deep layered sub-tropical ridge
north of Hawaii. The official CPHC track forecast is very close
to the previous advisory, and a bit south of the multi-model
consensus (TVCN) which appears to be influenced by a northerly
outlier in the GHMI. 

Madeline is encountering light to moderate west-southwesterly
vertical wind shear based on the UW-CIMSS product and SHIPS
analysis. The wind shear in combination with very dry mid-level
air will counteract very favorable sea surface temperatures of 28
to 29C, leading to slow weakening over the next couple of days.
Madeline is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low
tonight, with dissipation expected by 72 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 16.2N 162.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 16.0N 164.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 15.9N 167.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0000Z 15.9N 170.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 15.9N 172.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/R Ballard