WTPA45 PHFO 020858
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016
1100 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016

The satellite presentation show a slight increase in deep convection
near the difficult to locate low level circulation center (LLCC) of
Madeline since the last advisory. A 0511Z AMSU pass was helpful in
determining the location of the LLCC, and based on satellite
animations, the initial motion of Madeline is set to 265 degrees at
13 knots. The latest Dvorak fixes from the satellite agencies were
too weak to classify from SAB, 1.5/25-30kt from JTWC to 2.5/35kt
from PHFO. Based on a blend of the PHFO and JTWC current
intensities, Madeline has been downgraded to a 30kt Tropical
Depression.

Madeline will continue to track off to the west over the next few
days on the southern periphery of a deep layered sub-tropical ridge
north of Hawaii. The official CPHC track forecast was shifted
shifted slightly to the south of the previous advisory, to closely
follow the multi-model consensus TVCN over the next 36 hours, and
the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX) consensus from 36 hours through dissipation.

Madeline is encountering light to moderate southwesterly
vertical wind shear based on the UW-CIMSS product and SHIPS
analysis. This wind shear in combination with very dry mid-level air
will counteract very favorable sea surface temperatures of 28 to
29C, and lead to slow weakening over the next couple of days.
Madeline is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low Friday or
Friday night, with dissipation expected by 72 hours. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 16.3N 160.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 16.2N 162.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 16.0N 165.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/1800Z 16.0N 168.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 16.0N 171.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Ballard