WTPA45 PHFO 011458
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016
500 AM HST THU SEP 01 2016
 
After a several hour period where Madeline had a rather ragged
satellite presentation, a burst of deep convection developed near
the center around midnight, and has since persisted with an
abundance of lightning. Latest subjective Dvorak current intensity 
estimates from SAB/HFO/GTW were a unanimous 3.0/45 kt, and the 
initial intensity for this advisory has been maintained at 45 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory is once again 260/12 kt.
Although Madeline has been moving toward the southwest over the
past couple of hours, guidance indicates that a westward movement
will resume shortly as Madeline is steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge centered to the north and northwest of the cyclone. As
Madeline nears the southwestern periphery of the ridge on days 3
and 4, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The updated
track forecast is near the center of the reliable guidance suite 
and the previous forecast, and closely follows the latest HWRF 
guidance.
 
Despite moving over waters sufficiently warm to support a strong
hurricane, the intensity forecast continues to anticipate Madeline 
steadily weakening until dissipation occurs on day 5. The primary
factor driving this forecast is moderate to strong southwesterly to
westerly shear supplied by a retrograding upper-level trough now
northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. While SHIPS indicates some 
reintensification in the later forecast periods, the official
forecast follows trends presented by the GFS and ECMWF, which
indicate dissipation by day 4.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 16.7N 157.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 16.5N 158.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.5N 161.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 16.3N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 16.3N 166.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 17.0N 170.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z 18.0N 174.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard