WTPA45 PHFO 292104
TCDCP5

HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016
1100 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016
 
Madeline has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours, with
infrared satellite images depicting a cloud-filled eye encircled by
a solid ring of deep convection. Except for some modest restriction
in the southern semicircle, upper-level outflow is otherwise
unimpeded and the cyclone has taken on an increasingly symmetric
appearance. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB/HFO/GTW
also indicate a significant increase in intensity, with latest
estimates indicating 5.5/103 kt. ADT from UW-CIMSS indicates an
intensity near 110 kt, while SATCON is near 90 kt. Based on a blend
of this data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been
increased to 100 kt, making Madeline a major (category 3) hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane hunters from
the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron are slated to begin flying
investigative flights into Madeline tomorrow morning, which will
give us valuable information as to Madeline's actual intensity and
size. 

The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 300/09 kt, with
Madeline currently on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
ridge. A deep-layer trough lies far north of Madeline, with the
system generally tracking toward a weakness in the ridge caused by
this trough. This is expected to be the case for the next 24 hours
or so, after which time the trough is forecast to fill, and mid-
level heights will build to the north and northwest of the cyclone.
Guidance remain consistent in tracking Madeline toward the west-
northwest in the short term, with a turn toward the west anticipated
to begin on Tuesday as heights build. The updated track forecast is
close to the previous and the GFEX through 72 hours, and thereafter
lies to the right of the previous, close to the latest multi-model
consensus TVCN. 

While Madeline is currently near a col in the upper level flow, a
high-level trough is forecast to dig southward toward Madeline
Tuesday and Tuesday night, introducing increasing southwesterly
shear. This, combined with some drying in the mid-levels, is
expected to lead to a gradual weakening trend after tonight. In the
mean time, relatively light shear and warm SSTs may allow Madeline
to intensify a little more, as indicated by SHIPS guidance. The
updated intensity forecast follows the trends presented by the
previous, after accounting for the higher initial intensity. 

The latest track and intensity forecast necessitates a Hurricane
Watch for Hawaii County. Depending on the evolution of the
forecast, a watch may be required for additional Hawaiian Islands
later today or tonight. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 18.6N 145.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 19.0N 146.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 19.2N 148.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 19.0N 150.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 18.7N 152.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 18.0N 156.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 18.4N 160.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 19.0N 165.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard