WTPA45 PHFO 140233
TCDCP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102015
500 PM HST THU AUG 13 2015
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA REMAINS WELL EXPOSED WITH PULSES OF
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING WELL REMOVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. 
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A SYSTEM 
TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY BY JTWC UP TO HIGH OF 2.0 FROM SAB LIKELY DUE 
TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF 
HILDA ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL 
REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...HILDA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 
POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 

THE CURRENT MOTION OF HILDA IS 250 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THE REMNANTS OF HILDA 
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE WEST 
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS 
CONSENSUS. THE REMNANTS OF HILDA WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO AVOID DIRECT IMPACTS. HOWEVER THE 
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME NORTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER HEAVY 
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND.
 
STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND RE-GENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THIS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SPIN
DOWN SLOWLY WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATED BY 48 HOURS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL DISCUSSION ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS
RE-GENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40
PHFO. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 15.8N 155.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  14/1200Z 15.3N 157.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/0000Z 14.7N 160.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1200Z 14.1N 162.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE