WTPA44 PHFO 100242
TCDCP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  58
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
500 PM HST WED SEP 09 2015
 
JIMENA CONTINUES THE SPIN-DOWN PROCESS AS STRONG AND PERSISTENT 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PREVENTS CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING NEAR 
THE CENTER OF WHAT IS NOW A LOW CLOUD SWIRL. PHFO/SAB/JTWC HAVE
BEEN UNABLE TO DETERMINE A DATA-T DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION...
BUT A MORNING ASCAT PASS DETECTED A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF 25 TO 30
KT WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WERE 60 TO 180 NM NORTH OF THE
CENTER...AND ARE MORE DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN JIMENA AND A HIGH
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH WINDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...AND NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR QUITE SOME 
TIME...JIMENA IS BEING DEEMED A 30 KT POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
WITH THIS ADVISORY. 
 
JIMENA IS BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE 
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/08
KT. THE HIGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT A DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HAWAII
WILL WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE WHATEVER REMAINS OF JIMENA TO MOVE ON AN INCREASINGLY
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.

ALREADY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...WITH SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN
30 AND 40 KT AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS REGENERATION IS NOT 
LIKELY OR EXPECTED...AND THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED 
BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON JIMENA. FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS 
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU...UNDER AWIPS HEADER 
HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 24.6N 157.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  10/1200Z 24.5N 158.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/0000Z 24.5N 160.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1200Z 24.8N 161.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0000Z 25.7N 162.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD