WTPA44 PHFO 082047
TCDCP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102016
1100 AM HST MON AUG 08 2016
 
Organized deep convection over the center of Ivette has been absent
for a sufficient amount of time for the system to be deemed a post-
tropical remnant low, with a well-developed low cloud swirl marking
the remains. With the lack of convection, subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates indicate that the system is too weak to
classify. The initial intensity for this advisory has been reduced
to 25 kt, based on some weakening since an overnight ASCAT pass that
indicated 30 kt. Persistent southwesterly shear of 25-30 kt will
preclude redevelopment as any thunderstorms that may develop will be
quickly sheared northeastward.

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/07 kt, with Ivette being
carried toward the west in the low-level trade wind flow provided by
a surface high far to the north. Ivette is forecast to move toward
the west-southwest as it becomes increasingly weak over the next day
or so, with an increase in forward speed. The updated track forecast
lies close to the previous, and very close to a tightly clustered
guidance suite. Unlike other remnant lows that have been able to
persist for several days while traversing the central Pacific this
season, global models and SHIPS guidance indicate that post-tropical
Ivette will dissipate within 48 hours, and the official forecast
continues to do so. 

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system. Further information on the remnant low can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
in Honolulu, under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP, WMO header FZPN40 PHFO,
and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/HSFNP.php.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 17.1N 141.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  09/0600Z 17.1N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  09/1800Z 16.9N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/0600Z 16.2N 147.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$

Forecaster Birchard