WTPA43 PHFO 050245
TCDCP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122015
500 PM HST FRI SEP 04 2015
 
IGNACIO CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITHOUT 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO
BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THUS...AFTER COORDINATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BEING RECLASSIFIED AS A
55 KT POST-TROPICAL LOW. THE SYSTEM IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 24C NOW...AND SST WILL LOWER QUICKLY ALONG THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUB-20C BY 36 HOURS. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD 
ALLOW FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY 
FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD 
AGREEMENT. THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY 
TO THE LEFT ONCE AGAIN TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIGHTLY 
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS 
PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER /OPC/ IN WASHINGTON D.C.
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM
OPC FOR FUTURE FORECASTS UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER
FZPN01 KWBC. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 35.5N 164.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 37.6N 165.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  06/0000Z 40.4N 165.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  06/1200Z 42.5N 165.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  07/0000Z 44.3N 164.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  08/0000Z 48.4N 152.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/0000Z 50.3N 139.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0000Z 55.0N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD