WTPA43 PHFO 131430
TCDCP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IUNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022015
500 AM HST MON JUL 13 2015
 
NIGHTTIME CLOUD TOP COOLING HAS ALLOWED SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION TO 
FORM IN PLACES WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF IUNE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY 
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LLCC. SINCE IUNE HAS REMAINED DEVOID OF 
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR 18 HOURS...WE HAVE DOWNGRADED THIS 
SYSTEM TO A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST 
DISCUSSION FOR IT.

THE ONLY SATELLITE CENTER CONTINUING TO PROVIDE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS PHFO...WITH A 1.0 BASED ON MODEL 
EXPECTED T. THE FINAL INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THEREFORE 
SET AT 25 KT. IUNE HAS SUFFERED FROM AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR 
ENTRAINED THROUGH ITS NORTHWEST...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS 
ALONG WITH DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THESE EFFECTS HAVE COUNTERED 
THOSE OF AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...LIKE LOW SHEAR. FOR 
COMPLETENESS...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SHIPS WANTS TO KEEP IUNE 
CHUGGING ALONG AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED MAINLY ON FRIENDLY 
SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. SHIPS ALSO SEES UPPER DIVERGENCE 
BECOMING MILDLY FAVORABLE AGAIN AFTER 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH 
AT THIS POINT THAT IUNE WILL DISSIPATE SOON...BUT WE ALSO REMEMBER 
GENEVIEVE FROM LAST YEAR. 
 
IUNE...AS A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALMOST 
DUE WEST WITHIN LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
THROUGH DISSIPATION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ALIGNS WITH THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND WITH THE SHALLOW BETA AND ADVECTION 
MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/1500Z 14.4N 164.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  14/0000Z 14.3N 165.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER POWELL