WTPA42 PHFO 160241
TCDCP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP042016
500 PM HST FRI JUL 15 2016
 
Celia continues to weaken this afternoon with no deep convection
associated with this system. The latest intensity fixes from 
PHFO and JTWC all indicated that the system is too weak to classify
due to the lack of deep convection. Thus we have downgraded Celia to
a 30 kt post tropical/remnant low with the strongest winds likely in
the northern semicircle of the system.
 
The well defined low level center of Celia continues to move nearly
due west at around 11 kt. This westward motion is expected to
continue over the next few days as Celia will remain embedded
in moderate trade wind flow south of strong high pressure centered
far north of the main Hawaiian Islands. By around days 4 and 5,
the remnants of Celia are expected to gradually make a turn toward
the northwest as the system will then lie far southwest of the
high's center. Only small fluctuations in forward speed are expected
during the next several days. The latest track is very similar to
the previous track and closely follows the TVCE multi-model
consensus.

Celia has been moving over sea surface temperatures of around 24C,
and is embedded within a stable airmass as well. Slightly warmer
SSTs around 25C lie along the forecast track, but SHIPS guidance and
global models depict a further increase in westerly vertical wind
shear during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should prevent
regeneration. It should be noted that the global models do maintain
a distinct remnant low through the next several days, with near 30
kt winds persisting between the low and strong high pressure over
the North Pacific.

This will be the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on Celia unless regeneration occurs. Additional
information on this system can be found in the High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu under AWIPS
header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 22.4N 143.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  16/1200Z 22.5N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/0000Z 22.8N 147.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1200Z 23.2N 150.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z 23.6N 152.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z 24.4N 157.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z 25.6N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0000Z 27.3N 167.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Burke