WTPA42 PHFO 122055
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012015
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LLCC...WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES COMING IN AT 3.0
FROM JTWC AND SAB AND 3.5 AT HFO. CIMSS SATCON SUGGESTED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KT...AND AN AVERAGE OF THE FIXES AND SATCON
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
EXTRAPOLATION BETWEEN A BRIEF EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY
BETWEEN 1230 AND 1500 UTC AND A 1827 UTC SSMIS PASS WAS RELIED UPON
TO ESTIMATE THE POSITION OF THE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LLCC.

ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH DUE TO
DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE LLCC...INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY UNCHANGED AT
300/11 KT. WHILE RATHER STRONG RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINS 
FIRMLY IN PLACE NEAR 30N...THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS BEING 
CAUSED BY A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INDUCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY 900 MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HALOLA WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS DEEP RIDGING 
STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE TRACK FORECAST 
RUNS NEARLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...FOLLOWING 
CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. HALOLA WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 83 F WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST DAY THREE. DURING THIS 
TIME...THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BE A 
DISRUPTION TO THE OUTFLOW IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS AS 
HALOLA SHOULD REMAIN IN OR NEAR THE BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HALOLA WILL INTENSIFY...AND THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR ICON AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE 
ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD. BASED ON 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HALOLA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON 
TOMORROW.
 
INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF
DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 12.8N 179.9E   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 13.5N 178.3E   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 14.4N 176.3E   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 15.2N 174.4E   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 16.1N 172.3E   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 17.6N 168.0E   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 18.7N 164.0E   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 19.8N 159.5E   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER WROE