WTPA41 PHFO 072057
TCDCP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
1100 AM HST WED SEP 07 2016
 
Although latest satellite images show new convection developing
southeast of Lester's exposed low-level circulation center,
increasing southwesterly shear and dramatically colder waters along
the forecast track will preclude Lester from regaining tropical
characteristics. While the transition to an extratropical low may
take another 6 to 12 hours to complete, deep convection has been
absent over the center of Lester for sufficiently long that the
system can safely be deemed post-tropical. 

The initial motion for this advisory is 025/22 kt. The post-tropical
cyclone will continue to accelerate toward the northeast over the
next 12 to 24 hours as it becomes further embedded within a deep-
layer southwesterly flow associated with an approaching mid-latitude
shortwave trough. A track toward the northeast will persist until
the system dissipates, which is expected by 36 hours, when the
system becomes absorbed into the circulation of a larger
extratropical low forecast to develop near the Gulf of Alaska. 
Although Lester is no longer deemed to be a tropical cyclone, 
gale-force winds are still occurring in the eastern semicircle, 
and some increase in wind speed is expected as Lester transitions 
to an extratropical low. The updated track and intensity forecast 
is largely based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center, which 
is primarily based on a blend of the GFS, ECMWF and UKMET solutions.
  
This will be the final advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane 
Center on Lester. Further information can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 39.1N 164.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/0600Z 42.6N 161.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  08/1800Z 48.0N 155.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard