WTPA41 PHFO 022051

1100 AM HST FRI SEP 02 2016
The satellite presentation of Lester is slowly degrading as cloud
tops around the eye continue to warm. A U.S. Air Force
Reconnaissance aircraft reported maximum winds of 88 kt from the
SFMR in the northwest quadrant, and Dvorak current intensity
estimates range from 5.0/90 kt from SAB to 5.5/102 kt out of HFO and
JTWC. Given these data, the initial intensity is set at 90 kt. The
U.S. Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft will return to sample Lester
this evening, and the G-V is currently conducting one more synoptic
surveillance mission before heading back to the mainland. 

Lester continues to move west-northwestward, and the initial motion
is set at 290/13 kt. The cyclone remains to the south of a low to
mid level ridge and has rounded the upper level ridge axis. Lester
is expected to continue along a general west-northwestward track
through Saturday as it passes near the Hawaiian Islands, followed by
a turn toward the northwest later Sunday and Monday as the system
increasingly feels the effects of an upper level trough to the west.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Lester is forecast to interact with a deep
North Pacific trough, causing a turn toward the north. The official
track has changed little from the last advisory. During the time
when Lester will be passing near the main Hawaiian Islands, the
forecast remains near the GFEX in the middle of a rather tightly
clustered reliable guidance. Beyond Sunday, the guidance spread
increases, though all show a northward turn.

Lester is expected to gradually weaken through the next five days.
Both CIMSS and SHIPS analyze southerly vertical wind shear affecting
Lester, with the main impact appearing to be a restriction of the
outflow in the southern flank. In addition, Lester is moving over
SSTs of almost 26C, which is more than a degree cooler than this
time yesterday. The combination of these factors has led to the
gradual weakening of Lester. During the next couple of days,
vertical wind shear is expected to hold, if not strengthen slightly,
while SSTs change little. As a result, weakening is forecast to
continue. The intensity forecast closely follows SHIPS and LGEM and
is slightly below IVCN beyond 36 hours.
INIT  02/2100Z 20.1N 149.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 20.8N 151.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 21.8N 154.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 23.1N 157.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 24.5N 159.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 28.0N 163.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 31.4N 166.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 34.7N 167.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
Forecaster Wroe