WTPA41 PHFO 020905
TCDCP1

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
1100 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016
 
Latest satellite images show that Lester is a strong and
well-organized hurricane lacking banding features, with a ring of
strong convection completely encircling the well-defined eye.
Reconnaissance aircraft from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron has been flying through Lester this evening, and found
maximum flight level winds near 110 kt, and a central pressure near
963 mb, supporting an initial intensity of 100 kt for this advisory.
For comparison, all the fix agencies derived a data-T of 5.0/90 kt
and a current intensity of 6.0/115 kt.

The initial motion vector for this advisory is 285/12 kt, with
Lester tracking toward the west-northwest along the southern flank
of a low- to mid-level ridge. Meanwhile, in the upper levels, Lester
lies squarely between a high-level anticyclone to the east and a
persistent trough near Hawaii, in an area of southerly flow aloft.
These steering features will prevail through the forecast period,
keeping Lester on a west-northwest track. The tightly-clustered 00Z
model guidance had the benefit of extra data supplied by a G-V
synoptic surveillance mission conducted earlier today, and remains
consistent with previous runs and the ongoing forecast. The official
track forecast is essentially an update of the previous, and lies
close to the TVCN and GFEX, but to the right of the GFS ensemble
mean. 

The updated intensity forecast is also very close to the previous,
and the forecast philosophy remains the same. Lester has likely
peaked in intensity, and all the intensity guidance depicts a
weakening trend through the forecast period. Initially, some of
that weakening may be due to a temporary decrease in water
temperatures, as Lester is currently tracking over the area where
Hurricane Madeline rapidly intensified earlier this week. Overall,
the weakening trend is based on persistent and gradually increasing
vertical wind shear supplied by the high-level trough near Hawaii,
although significantly decreasing water temperatures on day 4 and 5
will contribute as well. The official intensity forecast closely
follows the LGEM and SHIPS guidance. 

A Hurricane Watch remains in place for portions of the main Hawaiian
Islands as the official forecast brings the system very close to the
islands. Although forecast model guidance has been stable for the
past couple of days, and the official forecast keeps the center
of Lester offshore of the islands, a small deviation from the
official forecast track could bring profound impacts to Hawaii.
Users are also reminded that impacts from hurricanes can occur well
away from the center. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 19.1N 147.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 19.7N 149.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.7N 151.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 21.7N 154.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 22.9N 157.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 25.8N 162.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 29.9N 165.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 34.5N 167.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard