WTPA41 PHFO 020254
TCDCP1

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
500 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016
 
Lester rapidly re-intensified to a major hurricane today as deep
convection strengthened around a well defined eye. Lester has been
moving over an area of warmer SSTs, and modest southeasterly
vertical wind shear appears to have been enhancing outflow to the
west and north of the cyclone. Dvorak current intensity estimates
are up, as all fix agencies came in with 6.0/115 kt. Given how there
has only been a small warming of the cloud tops around the center
since the fix time, the initial intensity will be raised to 110 kt.
U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will be conducting a mission
in Lester during the evening, while an NCAR G-V aircraft is
completing a mission to sample the environment to the north of
Lester.

Lester has begun its much anticipated turn toward the
west-northwest, and the initial motion is set at 285/12 kt. Lester
is moving along the southern flank of a low to mid level ridge and
is coming under the influence of an upper level trough sitting over
Hawaii. This upper level trough is producing a weakness in the ridge
that is causing Lester to move on the west-northwestward track. A
similar general motion is expected over the next two days with a
turn toward the northwest expected on Sunday and beyond. Though the
official track remains close to the prior advisory, the track has
been nudged slightly northward from Friday night and onward, and it
remains very close to the TVCN and the operational GFS, while the
ECMWF projected track remains to the north. A Hurricane Watch
remains in effect for the Big Island (Hawaii County) and Maui
County, and probabilities support the issuance of a Hurricane Watch
for Oahu. Any small deviation from the forecast track could bring
direct and profound impacts to the state, and this possibility must
be considered when making preparations.

With cloud tops showing signs of warming around the center, the
recent intensification trend appears to be coming to an end. Along
the forecast track, Lester will be over slightly cooler SSTs this
evening and beyond, and SHIPS forecasts modest vertical wind shear
to persist during the next couple of days before increasing as
Lester moves closer to the upper level trough. This is expected to
lead to gradual weakening. Given recent trends, the rate of
weakening in the official forecast has been slowed again and is in
line with the SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN through Saturday, then between
the slightly higher IVCN and weaker SHIPS and LGEM beyond that time.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 18.7N 146.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 19.3N 148.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 20.1N 150.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 21.1N 153.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 22.2N 156.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 24.9N 161.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 28.3N 165.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 33.0N 167.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe