WTPA41 PHFO 011452

500 AM HST THU SEP 01 2016
Lester's eye has re-emerged from cloud cover within the past hour
or so and deep convective cloud tops have begun to cool again, into
the -66 to -71 degree Celsius range as of 1330 UTC. However,
subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from the analysis
centers continue to depict a slowly weakening system. These
estimates range from 5.0/90 kt from PHFO to 4.5/77 kt from JTWC and
SAB. UW-CIMSS provided an ADT of 4.8/85 kt. Given Lester's very
recent eye reappearance, continued good organization and CDO
symmetry with little or no shear deformation, we will assign 90 kt
for initial intensity. This represents slight weakening from last
time, but is at the high end of available intensity estimates.

Initial motion is 280/12 kt. However, some wobbling has
accompanied the eye re-emergence. The steering mechanism
remains unchanged as Lester continues to move generally westward
along the southern flank of a strong subtropical ridge. Upper
troughing expected to persist over and northwest of the main
Hawaiian Islands should allow Lester to gradually gain latitude
through the 5 day forecast period. Track guidance remains tightly
packed, depicting a gradual turn toward the west northwest through
day 2, then toward the northwest afterwards. UKMET and GFDL take
Lester over the main Hawaiian Islands, but all other commonly-used
guidance take Lester northeast of the Islands. HWRF is the right
outlier, while ECMWF and GFS lie within the right half of the
envelope. The forecast track closely follows the last one through 96
hours. The 120 hour point was adjusted to the northeast to keep the
total forecast track aligned with TVCN consensus. Like most of
the guidance, this track takes Lester northeast of the main
Hawaiian Islands. That said, it would take only a small leftward
shift in the track to directly and profoundly affect the Islands.
This possibility must be considered when making preparation plans
over the next couple of days.

All intensity guidance show Lester weakening through day 5, but at
different rates. Like last time, the global models want to keep
Lester relative strong, with GFS depicting a hurricane at day 5. In
contrast, SHIPS degrades Lester to a tropical storm at 48 hours. We
have followed IVCN consensus through 96 hours, then continued the
weakening trend after that as IVCN levels off. 
INIT  01/1500Z 18.4N 143.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 18.8N 145.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 19.4N 148.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 20.2N 150.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 21.0N 153.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 22.9N 158.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 25.0N 163.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 28.7N 166.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
Forecaster Powell