WTPA41 PHFO 010845
TCDCP1

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
1100 PM HST WED AUG 31 2016
 
Lester's satellite presentation has degraded over the past few
hours, with the eye gradually becoming cloud-filled. Convective
cloud tops around the eye have warmed and are now in the -63 to
-66 degree Celsius range. Little or no shear deformation is
noted, with outflow best to the north and northeast. Subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are 4.5/77 kt from JTWC, 5.0/90
kt from PHFO and 5.5/102 kt from SAB. We will assign Lester an
initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory cycle, based on a rough
average of these three intensity estimates.

Initial motion is 275/12 kt as Lester moves generally westward
along the southern flank of a strong subtropical ridge. Upper
troughing expected to persist over and northwest of the main
Hawaiian Islands should allow Lester to gradually begin curving west
northwest, then northwest through the 5 day forecast period. Track
guidance remains tightly packed through 48 hours, then begins to
spread out afterwards. There is little change in the overall
envelope location from last time, but GFS shifted noticeably to the
right within it, joining ECMWF and HWRF depicting a gently curving
track just northeast of the Islands late day 2 through 4. The
little-changed forecast track roughly follows TVCN consensus along
this same general path. However, it is important to note that
several models along the left side of the guidance envelope, most
notably GFDL and UKMI, continue to show Lester passing over the
Islands as it curves northwestward. It would take only a small
leftward shift in the track to directly and profoundly affect the
Islands. This possibility must be considered when making preparation
plans over the next couple of days.

Lester has begun to weaken and most intensity guidance shows this
trend will continue through the 5 day forecast period, but at
differing rates. SHIPS, based mainly on decreasing SST potential,
weakens Lester most quickly, reducing this system to a tropical
storm within 48 hours. HWRF and the global models keep Lester much
stronger, with GFS keeping Lester as a hurricane at 120 hours. We
weaken Lester following HWRF intensity guidance through 72 hours,
then follow IVCN consensus on days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 18.2N 142.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 19.1N 146.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 19.8N 149.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 20.5N 151.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 22.3N 157.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 24.5N 162.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 26.7N 165.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Powell