WTPA41 PHFO 010317
TCDCP1

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
500 PM HST WED AUG 31 2016

The eye of Lester is becoming less distinct in visible satellite
imagery and the surrounding convective ring temperatures are
gradually warming in the infrared imagery. The intensity estimates
from the various agencies have responded accordingly, dropping to
5.5 (102 kt) from both HFO and SAB, and 4.5 (77 kt) from JTWC. Have
lowered the initial intensity to 105 kt for this advisory. 

The initial motion estimate is 280/12, little change from the
previous advisory. The cyclone is moving just north of due west,
and is located south of a large deep layer anticyclone far to
the north-northwest. Not much change is expected for the next
few days as the cyclone continues to move toward Hawaii. The
guidance has been reasonably consistent in the days 3-4 time frame
showing Lester passing uncomfortably close to the islands. Little
change was made to the previous official forecast, which is in good
agreement with the TVCN consensus. A note of caution, despite the
consistent track forecast showing Lester passing just northeast of
the islands, it must be pointed out that there are plausible
solutions within the margin of error that show direct impacts to
the main Hawaiian Islands. This possibility must be considered for
planning preparations over the next couple of days.

Little change in the intensity forecast was made as well. Lester is
expected to track over marginal SSTs, but in a relative low shear
environment for the next few days. This will likely only result in
slow weakening. Our intensity forecast continues to split the
difference between the GFS/ECMWF, which maintain a stronger system,
and the HWRF and statistical guidance, which weaken Lester somewhat
faster. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 18.2N 141.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 18.5N 143.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 18.9N 145.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 19.7N 148.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 20.3N 150.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 21.9N 155.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 24.1N 161.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 26.5N 165.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard