WTPA41 PHFO 101442
TCDCP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP042015
500 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
 
THE STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS WON THE BATTLE THIS 
MORNING...WITH THE LINGERING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ELA 
NOW DISPLACED NEARLY 400 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS A 
RESULT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELA HAS WEAKENED INTO A POST TROPICAL 
REMNANT LOW. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO PIN 
DOWN WITH A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE...AND RELIED HEAVILY ON 
VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS...PHFO AND JTWC POSITION 
FIXES...ALONG WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF A WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS AT 
10/0400Z AND AN ASCAT PASS 10/0706Z TO DETERMINE THE INITIAL 
POSITION FOR THIS LAST FORECAST ADVISORY PACKAGE. BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS...A SOLID SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS WERE EVIDENT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ELA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT
AT 30 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF WIND
FORECASTS. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE REMNANT
LOW...GRADIENT WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS UNTIL THE
SYSTEM FULLY DISSIPATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF ELA IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST LATER TODAY AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS TO 
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A BEND TO THE SOUTHWEST IS THEN EXPECTED 
ON SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ELA GET CAUGHT UP IN THE TRADE WIND 
FLOW...WITH THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 
HEADER HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 22.0N 149.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  11/0000Z 22.4N 150.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/1200Z 22.8N 152.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0000Z 22.6N 155.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$

FORECASTER JELSEMA/BIRCHARD