WTPA41 PHFO 112031
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP042012
1100 AM HST WED JUL 11 2012

DANIEL CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SITUATED TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
DANIEL HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THUS IT
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KT AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA
IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS LIE ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
COUNTERACT ANY POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING INTO A POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS MOST
INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH SLOW DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 15.4N 142.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 15.3N 144.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 15.2N 147.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/0600Z 14.8N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/1800Z 14.5N 154.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE