WTPA41 PHFO 111452
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP042012
500 AM HST WED JUL 11 2012

DANIEL CONTINUES ITS STEADY MOTION TOWARD THE WEST...WITH THE 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 270/14 KT...AND THE CENTER CROSSED 
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AROUND MIDNIGHT HST. THE SATELLITE 
APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE SHOWS A DEGRADED SYSTEM...WITH INFRARED 
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CENTER...WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THE 
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS HELD AT 35 
KT...BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM 
PHFO...AND DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS CHANGED 
LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... 
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY COUNTERACT ANY 
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION THAT THE HIGHER SST MAY PROVIDE. THE 
INCREASED NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SUPPLIED BY A RIDGE ALOFT 
TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH ALOFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING IN 
TANDEM WITH DANIEL...WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING...AND 
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A SHALLOW POST- 
TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...WITH THE TIMING DEPENDING ON 
WHETHER THE CYCLONE CAN MAINTAIN ANY SEMBLANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION 
NEAR THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS 
AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW DISSIPATION IN 36-72 HOURS. 

AS DANIEL WEAKENS...THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL BE A 
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL PROPEL 
DANIEL ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST...OR WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND WELL 
SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK 
OFFERS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS...AND LIES NEAR 
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 15.4N 141.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 15.4N 143.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 15.4N 146.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/0000Z 15.4N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/1200Z 15.2N 152.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD