WTPA41 PHFO 192040
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062011
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 19 2011

INITIAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY CLEARLY SHOWED THE EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...OF FERNANDA AND VERY LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ABOUT 80 NM FROM THE
CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 155W CONTINUES TO APPLY
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE WITH THE CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATING SHEAR VALUES OF 16 KTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
CPHC AND SAB WERE 35 KT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DETERIORATION
OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT THUS
MAKING FERNANDA A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

FERNANDA HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SINCE AROUND 0800 UTC.  FURTHERMORE...THE DETERIORATING CIRCULATION
OF FERNANDA IS AND WILL REMAIN OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
25C TO 26C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THUS...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY
SATURDAY.

WITH FERNANDA NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ITS MOTION HAS BECOME MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270
DEGREES AT 10 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINING LIFE CYCLE OF THIS SYSTEM AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH THIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 15.4N 145.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 15.7N 147.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 16.0N 149.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0600Z 16.0N 151.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA