WTPA41 PHFO 201455
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM OMEKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012010
500 AM HST MON DEC 20 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM OMEKA UNDER A SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE CENTER PEAKING OUT FROM
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THE WESTERLY
SHEAR IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF OMEKA NEAR 28N
173W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS MIDWAY BETWEEN A CLOSE GROUP OF PGTW
AND HFO FIXES. THE 45 KNOT INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES OF 3.0
FROM BOTH PGTW AND HFO. BOTH PGTW AND HFO INDICATE A WEAKENING
OMEKA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH
FORECAST POSITIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOSELY PACKED GFDL...
HWF...AND GFS MODELS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THERE IS A WIDE DIVERGENCE
OF GUIDANCE. THE 36 AND 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS ARE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND ARE CLOSE TO HWF AND BAMM. THE FORECAST TRACK
PLACES OMEKA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL EAST OF MIDWAY ISLAND IN
ABOUT 30 HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT SHEAR WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE DEMISE OF OMEKA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. IN FACT...JUDGING BY THE WARMER
CLOUD TOPS IN THE LAST TWO GOES11 INFRARED IMAGES...OMEKA MAY
ALREADY BE ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE IN INTENSITY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 21.6N 176.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 23.5N 175.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 26.7N 174.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 30.2N 172.7W    30 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 34.1N 168.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG