WTPA22 PHFO 220850
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NEKI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2009
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 166.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE  45SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......220NE 165SE  85SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 165SE  70SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 166.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 166.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 166.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  45SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...225NE 165SE  85SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.7N 165.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 75NE  55SE  50SW  55NW.
34 KT...220NE 160SE  75SW  95NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.3N 165.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.8N 164.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE  90SW  95NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.7N 162.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  55SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 135SE 105SW  95NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 31.8N 159.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 35.6N 157.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 166.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER POWELL