WTPA22 PHFO 212045
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NEKI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2009
 
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 166.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 65NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT.......220NE 160SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 160SE  70SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 166.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 166.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.2N 167.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 75NE  55SE  50SW  55NW.
34 KT...225NE 165SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.6N 167.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  55SW  60NW.
34 KT...230NE 170SE  90SW 115NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.0N 167.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE  95SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.4N 167.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE  95SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.5N 166.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  65SW  65NW.
34 KT...145NE 145SE 120SW 115NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 165.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 30.4N 163.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 166.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER WROE