WTPA22 PHFO 211729 CCA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NEKI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2009

CORRECTED FOR WATCH AREA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 166.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT.......220NE 160SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 160SE  70SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 166.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 166.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.2N 167.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 55NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT...210NE 160SE  60SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.8N 167.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 65NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT...220NE 170SE  70SW  95NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 168.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE  75SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.4N 168.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  75NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE  85SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.6N 168.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  75NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE 100SW 180NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.5N 168.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 30.0N 167.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 166.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON