WTPA22 PHFO 210852
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NEKI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2009
 
AT 1100 PM HST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO
LISIANSKI. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 166.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  15SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE  50SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 85NE  55SE  45SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 166.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 165.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 166.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 55NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT...210NE 160SE  60SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 167.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 65NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT...220NE 170SE  70SW  95NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.6N 168.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE  75SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.0N 168.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  75NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE  85SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.8N 168.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  75NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE 100SW 180NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 25.5N 169.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 169.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 166.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON