WTPA22 PHFO 210245
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NEKI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2009
 
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC....THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND
HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.  A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 165.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 55NE  40SE  25SW  45NW.
34 KT....... 85NE  55SE  45SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 85NE  55SE  45SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 165.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 164.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.8N 166.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
50 KT... 65NE  50SE  35SW  55NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  65SW  95NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.2N 167.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  45NW.
50 KT... 65NE  55SE  45SW  55NW.
34 KT...110NE  95SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.3N 167.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 70NE  65SE  55SW  65NW.
34 KT...125NE 105SE  95SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.4N 168.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 115SE 100SW 115NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.2N 169.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  70SE  65SW  70NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 23.6N 170.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 25.1N 171.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 165.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER WROE