WTPA45 PHFO 280240
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP112009
500 PM HST THU AUG 27 2009

VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF HILDA MOVED SOUTHWEST FROM THIS 
MORNING/S POSITION...APPARENTLY FOLLOWING THE LIMITED DEEP 
CONVECTION THAT WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER THIS MORNING. THE
ERRATIC MOTION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO IS EVIDENCE OF A
SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...AND 00Z SATELLITE
ESTIMATED CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM BOTH SAB AND PHFO HAVE DROPPED
TO 1.5 / 25 KT...WHILE JTWC DEEMED THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
GIVEN THESE FIXES AND THE TREND TOWARD WEAKENING SEEN ON 
SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT WITH 
THIS ADVISORY.  

WITH THE RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD JOG...A LONGER TERM MOTION FOR HILDA
IS NEARLY DUE WEST...AS THE SYSTEM APPARENTLY TOOK A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LAST NIGHT. HILDA WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY
TOWARD THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AS IT
WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND SOUTH OF A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP SOME
SEMBLANCE OF MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING WHAT 
IS LEFT OF IT/S LIMITED EXPECTED LIFETIME.   

HILDA/S LLCC APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING TO AN OPEN
TROUGH...AND WITH SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...CONVECTION WILL
STRUGGLE TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. RE-INTENSIFICATION APPEARS
VERY UNLIKELY...DESPITE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON HILDA FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 13.5N 156.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 13.4N 157.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 13.6N 160.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD