WTPA45 PHFO 272054 TCDCP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009 1100 AM HST THU AUG 27 2009 VISIBLE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CENTER OF HILDA IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATED INTENSITIES ARE 2.0 / 30 KT FOR 1800 UTC FROM THE THREE FIX AGENCIES...AND GIVEN A 1645 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SUGGESTED THE CONTINUED EXISTENCE OF 30 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...280/11...WITH THIS MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF THAT CONTAINED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NECESSITATED BY A MICROWAVE-ASSISTED SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN THE OVERNIGHT BEST TRACK POSITIONS. THIS MOTION MATCHES WELL WITH ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY EXTENDING BACK TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HILDA IS MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO TRACK WEST IN TANDEM WITH HILDA...MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT CONTAINED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SAVE FOR THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL POSITION... AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN...WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL WITH HILDA. HILDA APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...AS CONVECTION STRUGGLES TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH SSTS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...NONE OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF HILDA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMAINING A SIGNIFICANT INHIBITOR. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF HILDA WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 14.1N 155.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 14.4N 156.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.8N 158.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 29/0600Z 15.2N 161.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 29/1800Z 15.9N 163.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD