WTPA45 PHFO 271445
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP112009
500 AM HST THU AUG 27 2009

HILDA REMAINS WEAK. THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO BE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWEST BUT FINDING THE CENTER HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE. 

CURRENT INTENSITIES WERE 2.0 FROM JTWC AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM PHFO. I
HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 30 KT. THE CONVECTIVE BAND
NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. NEW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN
INDICATES A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BUT DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION AND NORTHWEST SHEAR GREATER THAN 20 KT SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING. I EXPECT HILDA WILL BE A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72
HOURS.

THE DVORAK FIXES HAD LATITUDES RANGING FROM 13.6N TO 14.0N WITH
LONGITUDES AROUND 152.7. HOWEVER...ANIMATION OF FOG-CHANNEL DATA
SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER NORTHWEST. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES TO HELP OUT AND THE CENTER LOCATION IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ALL SHOW A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
FARTHER TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF CENTER OF THE
FORECAST TRACK ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 14.7N 153.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.0N 155.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 15.5N 157.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 16.0N 159.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 16.7N 161.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     30/1200Z 18.0N 165.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON