WTPA45 PHFO 270859 TCDCP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009 1100 PM HST WED AUG 26 2009 HILDA REMAINS WEAK AND HAS TURNED SHARPLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BETWEEN 200 PM AND 800 PM HST...THE SMALL LOW LEVEL VORTEX MARKING THE CENTER OF HILDA MOVED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE WAS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONS FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC...BUT ALL THE DVORAK FIXES...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE IMAGES...SHOWED A JOG TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BUT HILDA HAD KEPT MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE HILDA HAS FINALLY STARTED MOVING ALONG A TRACK CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHIFTS THE TRACK SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES CAME IN WITH CI NUMBERS OF 2.0 AND 2.5. A 600 PM QUIKSCAT PASS STILL SHOWED A WELL ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF 30 KT WINDS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. BETWEEN 200 PM AND 1000 PM THERE WAS A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS A NARROW CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION FORMED NORTH OF THE CENTER. WITH THE INTENSITY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND SOME RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION...I HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER THAT. SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE MODEST AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM. HOWEVER... DESPITE THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE-APPEARING ENVIRONMENT HILDA REMAINS QUITE SICKLY AND FEW CYCLONES THAT BECOME THIS WEAK MANAGE TO RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 13.7N 152.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 13.7N 153.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 13.9N 155.6W 25 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 14.4N 157.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 29/0600Z 15.0N 159.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 30/0600Z 17.0N 164.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON