WTPA45 PHFO 261445
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP112009
500 AM HST WED AUG 26 2009

WITH DEEP CONVECTION STRADDLING ITS CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...IT LOOKS AT LEAST FOR NOW THAT HILDA HAS ENDED ITS
WEAKENING TREND. T-NUMBERS OUT OF SAB JTWC AND PHFO HAVE LEVELED
OFF AT 2.5 3.0 AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY WITH JTWC EVEN SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FALLS WITHIN
THE THREE AT A STEADY 40 KT.

THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK THAT HILDA HAS BEEN ON WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS. THE HIGH NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THAT IS KEEPING HILDA ON THIS COURSE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS AND IN SO DOING ALLOWING HILDA TO TURN TO THE
WEST THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND THAT. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OBJECTIVE AIDS SAY THAT THIS WILL BE SO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SITUATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOP AND IS
CLOSE TO GUNA TCON TVCN AND HWRF. THE TRACK REMAINS PRACTICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A WORK IN PROGRESS. THIS TIME
AROUND...THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH TO THE MAN MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OR SLOWLY SPIN HILDA DOWN. ALSO...THE DROP IN
THE FORECAST WINDS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR
THAT THE SHIPS MODEL SAYS HILDA WILL ENCOUNTER OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 13.4N 151.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 13.1N 152.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 12.8N 154.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 12.8N 155.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 13.0N 157.8W    45 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 13.7N 162.4W    45 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 15.0N 166.9W    45 KT
120HR VT     31/1200Z 17.1N 171.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG