WTPA44 PHFO 192100
TCDCP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102009
1100 AM HST WED AUG 19 2009

A WEAKENING GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO PROMPT ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN IT/S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AS A NEWLY DEVELOPED CELL
REPLACES THE ONE THAT DEVELOPED AND DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ REMAINS DETACHED FROM
THIS CONVECTION...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PHFO IS 1.5...WHILE BOTH PGTW AND
SAB DEEM THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. BASED ON THESE FIXES...A 
DECREASING TREND IN AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE 
APPEARANCE OF A DEFORMING LLCC ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES... 
GUILLERMO IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY. 

GUILLERMO/S INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...315/12. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SHIFT TO THE RIGHT...CONTINUING THE TREND SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF RUNS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS LESS OF A SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE...
WITH MOST MODELS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
INDICATING AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF GUILLERMO RECURVING AFTER 48
HOURS OR SO. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAT
IS ALSO TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT WITH 
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. IN THE SHORT TERM...GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AS IT WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF 
A WEAK HIGH TO IT/S NORTHEAST. A NEW HIGH IS FORECAST TO RACE 
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GUILLERMO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...POSSIBLY 
BRIEFLY SLOWING IT/S FORWARD MOTION...BEFORE RECURVATURE OCCURS WHEN 
THIS HIGH CENTER PASSES EAST OF GUILLERMO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 
  
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...OR ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GUILLERMO...IS PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR
OVER GUILLERMO...ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES HAVE TRENDED DOWN OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS TRACK FORECAST KEEPS GUILLERMO UNDER SOUTHERLY
SHEAR UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS...AS IT WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW CENTER...WITH A NEW LOW ALOFT DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTH IN 24
TO 36 HOURS MAINTAINING THIS SHEAR. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER SST/S
LIE ALONG GUILLERMO/S PROJECTED PATH IN THE SHORT TERM...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT SHEAR WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM RE-INTENSIFYING.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 30.8N 155.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 31.9N 156.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 33.3N 158.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 35.0N 158.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD