WTPA44 PHFO 180259
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102009
500 PM HST MON AUG 17 2009

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO HAS WEAKENED FURTHER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
CONVECTION REMAINS ABOUT 100 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED
LLCC...WITH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST SHEAR KEEPING THE CENTER CLEAR OF
CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF GUILLERMO IS DROPPED TO 40 KT...FALLING IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES. THE INITIAL
MOTION REMAINS AT WEST NORTHWEST AT 17 KT. THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
FOLLOWING A TIGHTLY PACKED GROUPING OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. 

STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SHIPS AND CIMSS DATA
BOTH SHOWING VERY UNFAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE SHEAR...ALONG WITH UNFAVORABLE OCEAN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR NEXT 48 HOURS...PROVIDE PROFOUND REASONING FOR
WEAKENING GUILLERMO TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 23.1N 147.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 24.4N 150.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 25.9N 153.3W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 27.3N 156.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER POWELL/MORRISON