WTPA43 PHFO 121505 TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009 500 AM HST WED AUG 12 2009 POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA...WHICH HAS SPORADIC AND WIDELY SPACED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME...MAY NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0532 UTC. AT THAT TIME...THERE WAS A NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE HI-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT WIND FIELD. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0829 UTC...WHICH HAS A MUCH SMALLER SWATH...ALSO SUGGESTED THERE WAS A SURFACE TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE PLATFORMS INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RAIN FLAGS...UNDERNEATH THE APPARENT CLOUD-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...OR CENTERS WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. SO THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE ACTUAL INITIAL LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...THE POSITION FIXES REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD. THE CENTER POSITION USED FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE PHFO...SAB...AND PGTW FIXES...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES RANGED FROM 1.0 TO 1.5. THE QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORTED 30 KT SURFACE WINDS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR LATITUDE 36N. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 280 DEG / 06 KT. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THIS RIDGE MAY WEAKEN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MAKA TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TURN WITH A RATHER TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST TRACKS. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DURING DAYS 3 TO 5. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT THEREAFTER. THIS IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE GFDI MODEL AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SUCH AS GUNA...TCON AND TVCN. WITH THE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF MAKA...THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN ITS INITIAL LOCATION AND THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT IT HAS NO CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO TAKE MAKA ACROSS 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CIRA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALSO SHOWS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH DAY 4. THE LATEST UW/CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATE SHOWS MAKA IS ENCOUNTERING 14 KT OF SHEAR FROM 225 DEG. THE OUTPUT FROM THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SHEAR DECREASING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF WARM WATER AND LOWERING SHEAR FORECAST...HAVE FOLLOWED THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE FROM GFDI...HWRF AND SHIPS...AND KEEP MAKA A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS IS STILL WEAKER THAN THE GFDI...WHICH INTENSIFIES MAKA TO A 79 KT TYPHOON ON DAY 5 AFTER IT CROSSES THE DATE LINE INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 14.8N 173.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 15.1N 175.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 15.6N 177.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 16.3N 178.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 17.2N 179.9E 45 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 19.4N 178.1E 50 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 22.1N 176.3E 55 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 25.0N 174.4E 55 KT $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON