WTPA43 PHFO 121019 CCA TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009 1100 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA REMAINS A MYSTERY...WITH ITS CIRCULATION CENTER AND ITS OVERALL APPEARANCE CHANGING WITH ALMOST EVERY GOES AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. AS A RESULT...THE POSITION FIXES OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS HAVE BEEN WIDELY SPREAD...BUT WITH A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST PROGRESSION. THE CENTER POSITION WITH THIS PACKAGE IS MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PHFO...SAB...AND PGTW FIXES. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW CAME IN WITH AN FT VALUE OF 1.5...25 KT WITH A CI OF 2.5...35 KT HELD UP BY DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE SAME GOES FOR PHFO WITH AN FT OF 2.0 AND A CI OF 2.5. MAKA AT 0600 UTC LOOKED MORE DISORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO SO WILL STICK WITH AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. MAKA IS MOVING TO THE WEST SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MAKA TO ASSUME A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OBJECTIVE AIDES ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN SPREAD OUT THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND TCON CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE OBJECTIVE AIDES CONTINUE TO HAVE A WIDE SPREAD...WITH THE GHMI SHOWING 115 KT...GFDL 105 KT AND AVNI 25 KT AT 120 HOURS. THE REST OF THE AIDES ARE EVENLY SPREAD BETWEEN THE EXTREMES. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAKA TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED AND THE WARM SSTS IT WILL BE OVER. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHWEST OF MAKA...WHICH WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 14.6N 173.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 14.9N 174.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 15.3N 176.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.8N 178.6W 40 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.5N 179.8E 45 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 18.4N 178.0E 35 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 21.4N 176.0E 30 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 24.9N 173.8E 30 KT $$ FORECASTER CRAIG