WTPA43 PHFO 120917
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012009
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA REMAINS A MYSTERY...WITH ITS CIRCULATION
CENTER AND ITS OVERALL APPEARANCE CHANGING WITH ALMOST EVERY GOES
AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. AS A RESULT...THE POSITION FIXES
OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS HAVE BEEN WIDELY SPREAD...BUT WITH A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST PROGRESSION. THE CENTER POSITION WITH THIS
PACKAGE IS MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PHFO...SAB...AND PG
FIXES. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PG CAME IN WITH AN FT VALUE OF
1.5...25 KT WITH A CI OF 2.5...35 KT HELD UP BY DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.
THE SAME GOES FOR PHFO WITH AN FT OF 2.0 AND A CI OF 2.5. MALA AT
06IO UTC LOOKED MORE DISORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO SO WILL STICK
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

MAKA IS MOVING TO THE WEST SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MALA TO ASSUME A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OBJECTIVE AIDES ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN SPREAD OUT THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TC ON GINA AND TN CONSENSUS. 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE OBJECTIVE AIDES
CONTINUE TO HAVE A WIDE SPREAD...WITH THE HIM SHOWING 115 KT GODEL
105 KT AND AVNI 25 KT AT 120 HOURS. THE REST OF THE AIDES ARE
EVENLY SPREAD BETWEEN THE EXTREMES. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAKA TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED AND THE WARM SSTS IT WILL BE OVER.
BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
NORTH TO NORTHWEST OF MAKA...WHICH WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS CALLS FOR A GENERAL
WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 14.6N 173.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.9N 174.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 15.3N 176.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.8N 178.6W    40 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 179.8E    45 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 18.4N 178.0E    35 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 21.4N 176.0E    30 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 24.9N 173.8E    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG