WTPA43 PHFO 120307 TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009 500 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2009 MAKA IS PROVING TO BE A DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO HANDLE. THERE IS EVEN UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT MAKA MAY ACTUALLY BE A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. AMBIGUITY DATA FROM THE 1704 UTC QUICKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED A POSSIBLE CENTER NEAR 13.7N 172.4W...WHICH IS SOUTHEAST OF THE 1800 UTC INITIAL POSITION. THIS FEATURE WAS USED TO RELOCATE THE INITIAL CENTER POSITION TO 13.8N 173.3W...AND IS ALSO SOUTH OF AN APPARENT MID-LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 15.1N 172.7W. FIXES FROM PHFO...PGTW AND SAB SHOWED WIDE SCATTER INDICATING THE UNCERTAINTY IN INITIAL POSITION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE PHFO AND PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES CAME UP WITH FT VALUES OF 2.0...30 KT WITH CI/S OF 35 KT HELD UP BY DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. SAB WAS AT 30 KT ON CURRENT INTENSITY. A 2330 UTC AMSU ESTIMATE SHOWED 28 KT. GIVEN THE DVORAK VALUES AND THE DEGRADATION OF ORGANIZATION AS SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KT WHICH IS BY DEFINITION A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA IS MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THE CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL AIDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SAME GENERAL PATH BUT VARY ON THE DEGREE OF TURN. THE GFS AND GFDL REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. UKMET AND ECMWF REMAIN ON THE LEFT. HWRF...NOGAPS AND TVCN ARE IN THE MIDDLE. EVEN THE THREE BETA ADVECTION MODELS LINE UP CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS...THOUGH WITH VARYING SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF MAKA REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY WIDE SPREAD WITH THE GFDL/GHMI SHOWING 110 KT AND HWRF 25 KT BY 120 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SST/S UNDER MAKA SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 28C AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VERTICAL SHEAR...AT 6.4 M/S BASED ON THE 0000 UTC CIMSS ANALYSIS...SHOULD NOT BE A DEBILITATING FACTOR. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHWEST OF MAKA/S TRACK...WHICH WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST TRACK. THUS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FROM 12 TO 48 HOURS BUT A GENERAL WEAKENING FROM 48 TO 120 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS IS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ICON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ASSUMES MAKA SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 13.9N 173.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 14.2N 174.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.8N 176.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 15.5N 177.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 16.3N 179.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 178.3E 35 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 20.8N 176.3E 30 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 23.4N 173.9E 25 KT $$ FORECASTER KODAMA